ABA is a classic example of what we call a "bullish R-4" trading opportunity. It's been profitable to those who took position when we wrote about ABA and posted our June 26, 2012 chart analysis. ABA has increased by about 53.73% from 0.67 to yesterday's high of 1.03.
ABA appears to be a 5th-wave terminal pattern as shown in this chart http://www.johnnykawa.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ABA_July-13-20121.png
According to Neely's Neowave theory, a 5th wave terminal pattern will be retraced by 100%. And it does not stop there. The terminal impulsion being at wave-5 will mean the entire impulsion (waves 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) starting from wave-1 will be retraced.
ABA will go up to 1.12.
This likely scenario is supported by ABA's RSI which is now at a parabolic state. And it is noteworthy to mention that ABA has declared a 10% cash dividend of 0.10 per share, and a 10% prop dividend.
As always, trade with caution and at a level you are comfortable with.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Thursday, June 28, 2012
PXP_Jun 27, 2012
1. PXP reached 44.95, and, as posted earlier, will confirm our reading of a flat instead of a triangle
2. 44.95 gives us a structure label of ":L3/L5" thereby completing the flat pattern
3. This uptrend now is wave-i of the impulsion after the Double Three
4. We expect this uptrend to not go beyond 49.55. This implies wave-i will range between 44.95 to 49.55.
5. We expect a correction of PXP to form wave-ii
6. This correction may go theoretically down to 99% of wave-i, but most likely, the correction will be at 61.8% of wave-i at about 41.44. Neo Wave retracement guide:
7. wave-ii is the very good place to enter this trade or to add to your position as wave-iii will be so much higher
2. 44.95 gives us a structure label of ":L3/L5" thereby completing the flat pattern
3. This uptrend now is wave-i of the impulsion after the Double Three
4. We expect this uptrend to not go beyond 49.55. This implies wave-i will range between 44.95 to 49.55.
5. We expect a correction of PXP to form wave-ii
6. This correction may go theoretically down to 99% of wave-i, but most likely, the correction will be at 61.8% of wave-i at about 41.44. Neo Wave retracement guide:
- 38.2% = 43.868
- 50.0% = 42.654
- 61.8% = 41.44
7. wave-ii is the very good place to enter this trade or to add to your position as wave-iii will be so much higher
AP_Jun 27, 2012
1. AP still a bullish Double three: a flat - X -triangle. That didn't change, and our TP remains the same
2. AP is no longer at a critical crossroads: it has decided to go on the bullish path
3. This is confirmed by the two critical conditions we mentioned in the previous posts
5. Due to R-5a on wave ending 6/15/2012, we expect the current wave-i to go up to this range:
7. In classical Elliott, wave-ii can retrace wave-i by as much as 99%, but in Neo Wave, wave-ii usually retraces wave-i by 61.8%. wave-ii Neo Wave Retracement guide:
38.2% = 33.56
50.0% = 33.075
61.8% = 32.585
2. AP is no longer at a critical crossroads: it has decided to go on the bullish path
3. This is confirmed by the two critical conditions we mentioned in the previous posts
- AP must reach 34.45, and it did, thereby invalidating the bearish R-4a and finally concluding the last leg of the triangle on 6/15/2012 as we suspected
- AP must breach the 50 RSI, and it did last 6/26/2012. RSI now sits convincingly at 62.109
5. Due to R-5a on wave ending 6/15/2012, we expect the current wave-i to go up to this range:
- 34.45 to
- 36.59
7. In classical Elliott, wave-ii can retrace wave-i by as much as 99%, but in Neo Wave, wave-ii usually retraces wave-i by 61.8%. wave-ii Neo Wave Retracement guide:
38.2% = 33.56
50.0% = 33.075
61.8% = 32.585
ABA_EOD Jun 27, 2012
1. ABA closed at 0.74. We continue to expect it will reach at least 0.76 to confirm this rebound. Here's why:
3. If 0.76 happens today, then we can conclude with confidence that the rebound and uptrend begins Jun 20, 2012.
4. Therefore, there may no longer be a "one more leg down." This 8-month downtrend has reversed.
- Currently, tructure label ":c3" at low of 0.66 implies it's a wave-b.
- IF and WHEN ABA reaches 0.76 this ":c3" becomes an ":L3/:L5"
- The wave-iv correction is just a simple monowave ":3" followed
by wave-v which terminates the entire Elliott wave
3. If 0.76 happens today, then we can conclude with confidence that the rebound and uptrend begins Jun 20, 2012.
4. Therefore, there may no longer be a "one more leg down." This 8-month downtrend has reversed.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
ABA_Mid-session update_Jun27, 2012
1. Lesson learned: never attempt progress labels without structure labels.
2. With the benefit of structure labels, we can confidently say that the downtrend of ABA is NEARING the bottom
3. Specifically, we are on wave-c of a flat. This wave-c is based on mid-day high of 0.73.
4. This flat is the wave-iv correction of the 5-wave impulse trending down that makes up the 5th wave
5. I may have taken position prematurely, but that's the price I pay for rushing a reading.
6. To be conservative, we may therefore expect one more leg down to complete the pattern
7. However, if ABA reaches 0.76, then this will confirm the uptrend. 0.76 changes the ":c3" structure label to an ":L3':L5" which is the termination of the complete Elliott wave.
8. We still expect a 5th-wave failure, thus you can take a position at about 0.67, not 0.66 as shown in chart below. Am just being conservative in case ABA fails to reach 0.76.
2. With the benefit of structure labels, we can confidently say that the downtrend of ABA is NEARING the bottom
3. Specifically, we are on wave-c of a flat. This wave-c is based on mid-day high of 0.73.
4. This flat is the wave-iv correction of the 5-wave impulse trending down that makes up the 5th wave
5. I may have taken position prematurely, but that's the price I pay for rushing a reading.
6. To be conservative, we may therefore expect one more leg down to complete the pattern
7. However, if ABA reaches 0.76, then this will confirm the uptrend. 0.76 changes the ":c3" structure label to an ":L3':L5" which is the termination of the complete Elliott wave.
8. We still expect a 5th-wave failure, thus you can take a position at about 0.67, not 0.66 as shown in chart below. Am just being conservative in case ABA fails to reach 0.76.
ABA_Jun 26, 2012
1. ABA is a "watchlist" issue as it appears to have completed an Elliott pattern with a 5th-wave failure
2. ABA is poised to start its rebound. "Poised" because it is still beneath the kumo (Ichimoku cloud) and ABA must breach .75 to be convincing
3. This apparent rebound is supported by the breach in the 0-2 trendline
4. A breach of the RSI wall at 51.96 will be another confirmation of ABA's bullishness
5. Not quite a DYM, but a good specimen to study
6. I took a position today because wave-4 is a "bullish R-4!"
2. ABA is poised to start its rebound. "Poised" because it is still beneath the kumo (Ichimoku cloud) and ABA must breach .75 to be convincing
3. This apparent rebound is supported by the breach in the 0-2 trendline
4. A breach of the RSI wall at 51.96 will be another confirmation of ABA's bullishness
5. Not quite a DYM, but a good specimen to study
6. I took a position today because wave-4 is a "bullish R-4!"
PXP_Jun 26, 2012
1. PXP is still a Double Three, but I'm having doubts about the pattern of the second three --- it may not be a triangle as earlier expected (see previous post, PXP_Jun 22, 2012)
2. Based on the current structure labels (in blue), it is a triangle since we have the series 3-3-3-3-3 from 5/29 to 6/22/2012
3. However, upon closer inspection, this suspected triangle is not channeling properly, so explore other possibilities
4. My reading is, this is a flat (3-3-5), with a double failure:
6. And this is the exciting part: wave-c's structure label will become ":L3/:L5" when PXP hits P44.95! Now we get our ":5" to complete our flat 3-3-5!
7. The wave ending 6/20 is a bullish R-4. Use your crystal ball (see other page in this blog: "My Crystal Ball"). This means the current uptrend will take us anywhere from P42.10 (100% of previous wave) to beyond P49.55 (261.8%)
8. I am therefore expecting that PXP will reach at least 44.95 later today Jun 27
9. Our Double Three is complete, and either another X-wave (for a Triple Three) or an impulsion follows. If it's an impulsion, a 161.8% projection of the previous impulse is expected (blue)
10. If PXP fails to reach P44.95, we revert to the triangle
11. Either way, flat or triangle, PXP is still a bullish Double Three
2. Based on the current structure labels (in blue), it is a triangle since we have the series 3-3-3-3-3 from 5/29 to 6/22/2012
3. However, upon closer inspection, this suspected triangle is not channeling properly, so explore other possibilities
4. My reading is, this is a flat (3-3-5), with a double failure:
- 6/05/2012 = wave-a = :3
- 6/20/2012 = wave-b = :3 (3-3-5 compacted)
- 6/22/2012 = wave-c = :5?
6. And this is the exciting part: wave-c's structure label will become ":L3/:L5" when PXP hits P44.95! Now we get our ":5" to complete our flat 3-3-5!
7. The wave ending 6/20 is a bullish R-4. Use your crystal ball (see other page in this blog: "My Crystal Ball"). This means the current uptrend will take us anywhere from P42.10 (100% of previous wave) to beyond P49.55 (261.8%)
8. I am therefore expecting that PXP will reach at least 44.95 later today Jun 27
9. Our Double Three is complete, and either another X-wave (for a Triple Three) or an impulsion follows. If it's an impulsion, a 161.8% projection of the previous impulse is expected (blue)
10. If PXP fails to reach P44.95, we revert to the triangle
11. Either way, flat or triangle, PXP is still a bullish Double Three
Monday, June 25, 2012
LC_Jun 25, 2012
1. The structure labels remain the same, R-4 trading is still in place, and LC is still expected to correct down to 1.35 levels
2. Today's bullish harami candle, while low in reliability, may take LC tomorrow to 1.45 to 1.47 levels, creating wave-b; watch the "kiss" of the 66.68 RSI
3. This is consistent with the character of wave-b: it is usually more complex and more time-consuming than wave-a which was a monowave
4. The breach of the lower 2-4 trendline (I didn't bother to show it for a less cluttered chart) supports our thinking that this correction is behaving more like a triangle rather than a flat
5. Taking a position in wave-c again may be prudent in case this correction turns out to be a flat and not a triangle
2. Today's bullish harami candle, while low in reliability, may take LC tomorrow to 1.45 to 1.47 levels, creating wave-b; watch the "kiss" of the 66.68 RSI
3. This is consistent with the character of wave-b: it is usually more complex and more time-consuming than wave-a which was a monowave
4. The breach of the lower 2-4 trendline (I didn't bother to show it for a less cluttered chart) supports our thinking that this correction is behaving more like a triangle rather than a flat
5. Taking a position in wave-c again may be prudent in case this correction turns out to be a flat and not a triangle
Sunday, June 24, 2012
BSC_Jun 22, 2012
1. While the possibility of a Triple Zigzag remains, BSC appears to have concluded a Double Zigzag due to the R-5a reading (red)
2. On 6/21/2012 (green dotted vertical line), BSC breached the trendline and the 50 RSI, encouraging signs of a retracement of the Double Zigzag
3. This Double Zigzag has a power rating of (-2), thus an 80% retracement is expected (blue dotted arrow)
Note: structure labels in blue; corrective progress labels in red
Note2: I was informed that this issue is being jockeyed by a local "operator." My chart is purely technical and academic: news, rumors, insider info are all discounted by the price action. So trade at your own comfort level.
2. On 6/21/2012 (green dotted vertical line), BSC breached the trendline and the 50 RSI, encouraging signs of a retracement of the Double Zigzag
3. This Double Zigzag has a power rating of (-2), thus an 80% retracement is expected (blue dotted arrow)
Note: structure labels in blue; corrective progress labels in red
Note2: I was informed that this issue is being jockeyed by a local "operator." My chart is purely technical and academic: news, rumors, insider info are all discounted by the price action. So trade at your own comfort level.
Saturday, June 23, 2012
Rule-4 Trading: LC_June 22, 2012
1. LC will go down to at least 1.35. That's because of the "bearish R-4d" (red) on wave ending 6/18/2012. Note the candlesticks: bearish doji star as well
2. Tentatively, however, we expect a bounce up after the dip, since we have a "bullish R-4c" (red) on wave ending 6/21/2012
3. I say "tentatively" because the data we have is not enough, and we still do not know exactly how low LC will correct to.
4. We see the characteristic behaviour of a triangle, and I am expecting two other ":c3" waves for wave-c and wave-d respectively of this current wave-4 triangle from 6/11/2012 to present
5. It's always prudent to enter a trade at wave-c in case this triangle will turn out to be a flat
6. Although unlikely, the possibility that LC will still correct down to 1.01 to 1.06 levels still remains. This is because from 4/26 onwards, LC can still form a 3-3-5 to complete wave-E of this running triangle ABCDE.
7. Since this entire running triangle (ABCDE) from 12/8/2011 is a terminal pattern (3-3-3-3-3), LC will surely retrace back to the beginning of this entire wave-c of the larger flat (from 8/24/2011). That's 1.81
8. Pls supply your own TP. You already know the post-pattern action of flat with a double failure!
2. Tentatively, however, we expect a bounce up after the dip, since we have a "bullish R-4c" (red) on wave ending 6/21/2012
3. I say "tentatively" because the data we have is not enough, and we still do not know exactly how low LC will correct to.
4. We see the characteristic behaviour of a triangle, and I am expecting two other ":c3" waves for wave-c and wave-d respectively of this current wave-4 triangle from 6/11/2012 to present
5. It's always prudent to enter a trade at wave-c in case this triangle will turn out to be a flat
6. Although unlikely, the possibility that LC will still correct down to 1.01 to 1.06 levels still remains. This is because from 4/26 onwards, LC can still form a 3-3-5 to complete wave-E of this running triangle ABCDE.
7. Since this entire running triangle (ABCDE) from 12/8/2011 is a terminal pattern (3-3-3-3-3), LC will surely retrace back to the beginning of this entire wave-c of the larger flat (from 8/24/2011). That's 1.81
8. Pls supply your own TP. You already know the post-pattern action of flat with a double failure!
PXP_June 22, 2012
1. PXP appears to be a Double Three: a flat-X-triangle
2. PXP is now on the Second Three. A triangle most likely.
3. The current downtrend in this second three could be a monowave wave-c.
4. Taking a position at wave-c may prove to be profitable in case the second three will be a flat instead of the usual triangle
5. Supply your own TP. You already know the post-pattern action after a Double Three correction. Is that a DYM candidate?
2. PXP is now on the Second Three. A triangle most likely.
3. The current downtrend in this second three could be a monowave wave-c.
4. Taking a position at wave-c may prove to be profitable in case the second three will be a flat instead of the usual triangle
5. Supply your own TP. You already know the post-pattern action after a Double Three correction. Is that a DYM candidate?
AP_ June 22, 2012
AP is in a critical crossroad.
Scenario 1: Bearish Rule-4a (red)
1. Consider yourself warned: We got a R-4a retracement rule for the wave ending 6/15/2012 (red)
2. If R-4a is not invalidated, AP will correct down to 31.00 and below (red arrows and labels)
3. To invalidate the bearish R-4a wave, AP must reach 34.45. At 34.45, the R-4a wave becomes R-5a
Scenario 2: Bullish (blue)
1. AP may already be on wave-i of the wave-3 impulsion after breaching the trendline
2. AP is expected to correct to form wave-ii (black)
3. This impulsion will take AP to new highs, but it is prudent to wait for a breach of 50 RSI before buying/adding to your position and going long
4. It's because AP is coming from a Double Three, specifically a flat-X-triangle
5. The fibo projection of the post-pattern action of a double three is usually 161.8% of the previous impulsive wave. 261.8% projection is not uncommon.
Scenario 1: Bearish Rule-4a (red)
1. Consider yourself warned: We got a R-4a retracement rule for the wave ending 6/15/2012 (red)
2. If R-4a is not invalidated, AP will correct down to 31.00 and below (red arrows and labels)
3. To invalidate the bearish R-4a wave, AP must reach 34.45. At 34.45, the R-4a wave becomes R-5a
Scenario 2: Bullish (blue)
1. AP may already be on wave-i of the wave-3 impulsion after breaching the trendline
2. AP is expected to correct to form wave-ii (black)
3. This impulsion will take AP to new highs, but it is prudent to wait for a breach of 50 RSI before buying/adding to your position and going long
4. It's because AP is coming from a Double Three, specifically a flat-X-triangle
5. The fibo projection of the post-pattern action of a double three is usually 161.8% of the previous impulsive wave. 261.8% projection is not uncommon.
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