ABA is a classic example of what we call a "bullish R-4" trading opportunity. It's been profitable to those who took position when we wrote about ABA and posted our June 26, 2012 chart analysis. ABA has increased by about 53.73% from 0.67 to yesterday's high of 1.03.
ABA appears to be a 5th-wave terminal pattern as shown in this chart http://www.johnnykawa.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/ABA_July-13-20121.png
According to Neely's Neowave theory, a 5th wave terminal pattern will be retraced by 100%. And it does not stop there. The terminal impulsion being at wave-5 will mean the entire impulsion (waves 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) starting from wave-1 will be retraced.
ABA will go up to 1.12.
This likely scenario is supported by ABA's RSI which is now at a parabolic state. And it is noteworthy to mention that ABA has declared a 10% cash dividend of 0.10 per share, and a 10% prop dividend.
As always, trade with caution and at a level you are comfortable with.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Thursday, June 28, 2012
PXP_Jun 27, 2012
1. PXP reached 44.95, and, as posted earlier, will confirm our reading of a flat instead of a triangle
2. 44.95 gives us a structure label of ":L3/L5" thereby completing the flat pattern
3. This uptrend now is wave-i of the impulsion after the Double Three
4. We expect this uptrend to not go beyond 49.55. This implies wave-i will range between 44.95 to 49.55.
5. We expect a correction of PXP to form wave-ii
6. This correction may go theoretically down to 99% of wave-i, but most likely, the correction will be at 61.8% of wave-i at about 41.44. Neo Wave retracement guide:
7. wave-ii is the very good place to enter this trade or to add to your position as wave-iii will be so much higher
2. 44.95 gives us a structure label of ":L3/L5" thereby completing the flat pattern
3. This uptrend now is wave-i of the impulsion after the Double Three
4. We expect this uptrend to not go beyond 49.55. This implies wave-i will range between 44.95 to 49.55.
5. We expect a correction of PXP to form wave-ii
6. This correction may go theoretically down to 99% of wave-i, but most likely, the correction will be at 61.8% of wave-i at about 41.44. Neo Wave retracement guide:
- 38.2% = 43.868
- 50.0% = 42.654
- 61.8% = 41.44
7. wave-ii is the very good place to enter this trade or to add to your position as wave-iii will be so much higher
AP_Jun 27, 2012
1. AP still a bullish Double three: a flat - X -triangle. That didn't change, and our TP remains the same
2. AP is no longer at a critical crossroads: it has decided to go on the bullish path
3. This is confirmed by the two critical conditions we mentioned in the previous posts
5. Due to R-5a on wave ending 6/15/2012, we expect the current wave-i to go up to this range:
7. In classical Elliott, wave-ii can retrace wave-i by as much as 99%, but in Neo Wave, wave-ii usually retraces wave-i by 61.8%. wave-ii Neo Wave Retracement guide:
38.2% = 33.56
50.0% = 33.075
61.8% = 32.585
2. AP is no longer at a critical crossroads: it has decided to go on the bullish path
3. This is confirmed by the two critical conditions we mentioned in the previous posts
- AP must reach 34.45, and it did, thereby invalidating the bearish R-4a and finally concluding the last leg of the triangle on 6/15/2012 as we suspected
- AP must breach the 50 RSI, and it did last 6/26/2012. RSI now sits convincingly at 62.109
5. Due to R-5a on wave ending 6/15/2012, we expect the current wave-i to go up to this range:
- 34.45 to
- 36.59
7. In classical Elliott, wave-ii can retrace wave-i by as much as 99%, but in Neo Wave, wave-ii usually retraces wave-i by 61.8%. wave-ii Neo Wave Retracement guide:
38.2% = 33.56
50.0% = 33.075
61.8% = 32.585
ABA_EOD Jun 27, 2012
1. ABA closed at 0.74. We continue to expect it will reach at least 0.76 to confirm this rebound. Here's why:
3. If 0.76 happens today, then we can conclude with confidence that the rebound and uptrend begins Jun 20, 2012.
4. Therefore, there may no longer be a "one more leg down." This 8-month downtrend has reversed.
- Currently, tructure label ":c3" at low of 0.66 implies it's a wave-b.
- IF and WHEN ABA reaches 0.76 this ":c3" becomes an ":L3/:L5"
- The wave-iv correction is just a simple monowave ":3" followed
by wave-v which terminates the entire Elliott wave
3. If 0.76 happens today, then we can conclude with confidence that the rebound and uptrend begins Jun 20, 2012.
4. Therefore, there may no longer be a "one more leg down." This 8-month downtrend has reversed.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
ABA_Mid-session update_Jun27, 2012
1. Lesson learned: never attempt progress labels without structure labels.
2. With the benefit of structure labels, we can confidently say that the downtrend of ABA is NEARING the bottom
3. Specifically, we are on wave-c of a flat. This wave-c is based on mid-day high of 0.73.
4. This flat is the wave-iv correction of the 5-wave impulse trending down that makes up the 5th wave
5. I may have taken position prematurely, but that's the price I pay for rushing a reading.
6. To be conservative, we may therefore expect one more leg down to complete the pattern
7. However, if ABA reaches 0.76, then this will confirm the uptrend. 0.76 changes the ":c3" structure label to an ":L3':L5" which is the termination of the complete Elliott wave.
8. We still expect a 5th-wave failure, thus you can take a position at about 0.67, not 0.66 as shown in chart below. Am just being conservative in case ABA fails to reach 0.76.
2. With the benefit of structure labels, we can confidently say that the downtrend of ABA is NEARING the bottom
3. Specifically, we are on wave-c of a flat. This wave-c is based on mid-day high of 0.73.
4. This flat is the wave-iv correction of the 5-wave impulse trending down that makes up the 5th wave
5. I may have taken position prematurely, but that's the price I pay for rushing a reading.
6. To be conservative, we may therefore expect one more leg down to complete the pattern
7. However, if ABA reaches 0.76, then this will confirm the uptrend. 0.76 changes the ":c3" structure label to an ":L3':L5" which is the termination of the complete Elliott wave.
8. We still expect a 5th-wave failure, thus you can take a position at about 0.67, not 0.66 as shown in chart below. Am just being conservative in case ABA fails to reach 0.76.
ABA_Jun 26, 2012
1. ABA is a "watchlist" issue as it appears to have completed an Elliott pattern with a 5th-wave failure
2. ABA is poised to start its rebound. "Poised" because it is still beneath the kumo (Ichimoku cloud) and ABA must breach .75 to be convincing
3. This apparent rebound is supported by the breach in the 0-2 trendline
4. A breach of the RSI wall at 51.96 will be another confirmation of ABA's bullishness
5. Not quite a DYM, but a good specimen to study
6. I took a position today because wave-4 is a "bullish R-4!"
2. ABA is poised to start its rebound. "Poised" because it is still beneath the kumo (Ichimoku cloud) and ABA must breach .75 to be convincing
3. This apparent rebound is supported by the breach in the 0-2 trendline
4. A breach of the RSI wall at 51.96 will be another confirmation of ABA's bullishness
5. Not quite a DYM, but a good specimen to study
6. I took a position today because wave-4 is a "bullish R-4!"
PXP_Jun 26, 2012
1. PXP is still a Double Three, but I'm having doubts about the pattern of the second three --- it may not be a triangle as earlier expected (see previous post, PXP_Jun 22, 2012)
2. Based on the current structure labels (in blue), it is a triangle since we have the series 3-3-3-3-3 from 5/29 to 6/22/2012
3. However, upon closer inspection, this suspected triangle is not channeling properly, so explore other possibilities
4. My reading is, this is a flat (3-3-5), with a double failure:
6. And this is the exciting part: wave-c's structure label will become ":L3/:L5" when PXP hits P44.95! Now we get our ":5" to complete our flat 3-3-5!
7. The wave ending 6/20 is a bullish R-4. Use your crystal ball (see other page in this blog: "My Crystal Ball"). This means the current uptrend will take us anywhere from P42.10 (100% of previous wave) to beyond P49.55 (261.8%)
8. I am therefore expecting that PXP will reach at least 44.95 later today Jun 27
9. Our Double Three is complete, and either another X-wave (for a Triple Three) or an impulsion follows. If it's an impulsion, a 161.8% projection of the previous impulse is expected (blue)
10. If PXP fails to reach P44.95, we revert to the triangle
11. Either way, flat or triangle, PXP is still a bullish Double Three
2. Based on the current structure labels (in blue), it is a triangle since we have the series 3-3-3-3-3 from 5/29 to 6/22/2012
3. However, upon closer inspection, this suspected triangle is not channeling properly, so explore other possibilities
4. My reading is, this is a flat (3-3-5), with a double failure:
- 6/05/2012 = wave-a = :3
- 6/20/2012 = wave-b = :3 (3-3-5 compacted)
- 6/22/2012 = wave-c = :5?
6. And this is the exciting part: wave-c's structure label will become ":L3/:L5" when PXP hits P44.95! Now we get our ":5" to complete our flat 3-3-5!
7. The wave ending 6/20 is a bullish R-4. Use your crystal ball (see other page in this blog: "My Crystal Ball"). This means the current uptrend will take us anywhere from P42.10 (100% of previous wave) to beyond P49.55 (261.8%)
8. I am therefore expecting that PXP will reach at least 44.95 later today Jun 27
9. Our Double Three is complete, and either another X-wave (for a Triple Three) or an impulsion follows. If it's an impulsion, a 161.8% projection of the previous impulse is expected (blue)
10. If PXP fails to reach P44.95, we revert to the triangle
11. Either way, flat or triangle, PXP is still a bullish Double Three
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